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Two days to go.

England's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against pace bowling, no country has been harder in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Pat Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia entered a home match without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being backed through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been identified as having the game for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in the Gabba, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the usual day-night venue Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its traditional red ball.

The issue in {day-night matches|