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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates encompass identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."